As the winter season returns, bringing with it an uptick in respiratory illnesses and the continuation of pandemic-era practices like mask mandates, global health experts are actively strategizing for the possibility of a new outbreak. During a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, leaders in the health industry underscored the importance of proactive planning for a hypothetical threat known as “Disease X.”
Despite the genuine concerns expressed by health professionals, the panel’s discussions stirred conspiracy theories among right-wing social media accounts. Some claimed that world leaders were plotting the onset of the next pandemic or attempting to reintroduce restrictions on free speech and reinstate mask mandates. The World Health Organization (WHO) clarified that the objective of such preparations is to mitigate the devastating impact experienced during the COVID-19 era, such as overwhelmed medical systems and substantial economic losses.
So, what exactly is Disease X?
Disease X is not a specific ailment but rather a term assigned to a potential novel infectious agent. It represents an unknown illness that could pose a serious microbial threat to humans in the future. The WHO included Disease X in a list of top-priority pathogens for research in 2018, alongside well-known killers like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Ebola. The designation serves to prioritize preparations for a disease lacking vaccines or treatments, capable of triggering a severe epidemic.
The WHO has cautioned that Disease X could lead to 20 times more fatalities than COVID-19, which claimed approximately seven million lives globally. In 2023, healthcare professionals warned that a new pandemic could be even deadlier, potentially causing an estimated 50 million deaths worldwide.
What was the Disease X panel at Davos?
During the Davos summit, healthcare experts stressed the importance of preparing for Disease X to save lives and reduce costs associated with a potential outbreak. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus highlighted ongoing measures, including a pandemic fund and a technology transfer hub in South Africa to address vaccine inequity.
Companies like AstraZeneca are conducting assessments of global health systems to provide recommendations for pandemic management, while Apollo Hospitals’ Preetha Reddy highlighted efforts to address inequity, particularly in rural populations in India, using technology.
Preparing for a pandemic involves international cooperation, research and development, and the development of country-level initiatives. This includes mapping out plans to increase hospital capacity, scaling up treatment supplies, and adopting new technologies to support medical workers. The European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests strengthening existing systems rather than developing new ones.
Increased surveillance of diseases is also crucial for quick detection of novel pathogens. On average, at least two new viruses are discovered each year. Such preparedness measures, if implemented, could significantly reduce the costs associated with a future pandemic. A study backed by the Gates Foundation estimates that global investments of $124 billion over five years could greatly enhance the world’s readiness for major epidemics, potentially saving trillions in economic losses.
