In June, a gauge used to monitor changes in U.S. business cycles declined for the 15th consecutive month, pulled down by deteriorating consumer confidence and rising jobless claims. This is the longest run of declines since the period preceding the 2007–2009 recession.
The Conference Board reported on Thursday that its Leading Economic Index, which forecasts future economic activity, fell by 0.7% in June to 106.1 after a May loss of 0.6% was downgraded. In a Reuters poll, economists’ median projection for a loss of 0.6% was slightly higher than the actual decline.
According to June’s data combined, the economy will continue to slow down in the coming months, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. The Conference Board reaffirmed its prediction that the U.S. economy will likely be in recession from the third quarter of this year through the first quarter of 2024.
According to Zabinska-La Monica, “higher prices, a tighter monetary policy, more difficult credit requirements, and decreased government spending are poised to stifle economic growth further.”
According to the Conference Board, the LEI’s contraction is quickening, dropping 4.2% in the past six months instead of 3.8% between June and December 2022.
