According to predictions, the population of England’s working-age population will grow nine times more slowly than the number of persons with serious illnesses.
Health disorders like dementia and cancer will affect roughly one in five people by 2040, up from one in six in 2019.
The analysis’s authors, The Health Foundation, predicted that the population change will significantly affect the NHS.
According to the think tank, a fundamental transformation would be necessary, with more community treatment rather than hospitals.
According to predictions, 9.1 million people will have a serious health issue by 2040, up 37% from the most recent figures for 2019. In contrast, there will only be a 4% growth in the number of healthy working-age adults.
The elderly are primarily responsible for the increase, but more and more young people will also be living with illnesses, according to the report.
People who have anxiety, sadness, chronic pain, and diabetes will all see significant gains. One of the main causes of the expected increase in illnesses is obesity. Less smoking and reduced cholesterol levels will more than outweigh the benefits of this.
The ten health issues that affect people the most:
- Chronic pain
- Diabetes
- Anxiety or depression
- Cancer
- Chronic kidney disease
- Atrial fibrillation
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- Heart failure
- Constipation
- Dementia
Lead researcher Anita Charlesworth said: “The challenge of an aging population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS.
“Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well-prepared we are to meet the challenge will set us apart.
“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS.
“But the impact will extend well beyond the health service too – and has significant implications for other public services, the labor market, and the public finances.”
While living with a major health condition would not necessarily exclude everyone from the workforce, many would be excluded.
Dr. Layla McCay of the NHS Confederation, representing health managers, said the projections were “worrying” given the increased pressure and demand on the NHS that the changes would lead to.
She said there needed to be a greater focus on prevention to reduce the number of people living in ill health. And she added that investment in social care to support older people would also be needed: “We know that investment in health will support our aging population to live well with illness, as well as support economic growth.”
